The most expensive mistake in public procurement is not the lost bid but the bid that should never have been written. A bid ties up specialists, management and often external partners. The bid/no-bid decision is the moment that capacity is allocated, and in many companies it is taken on gut feeling.
The criteria
First, hard suitability: do we meet all knock-out and suitability criteria with evidence we can actually provide? Second, references: do they fit in content and scale? Third, capacity: are the required key people available in the required period? Fourth, price position against foreseeable competitors. Fifth, win probability, derived from the award criteria and one’s own track record. Sixth, contract risks: penalties, liability, acceptance rules. Seventh, strategic value, such as entry with a new authority.
When to decide
Early. A decision two days before the deadline is not a decision but a surrender to effort already spent. A first decision within a few days of publication based on a short analysis works well, with a second checkpoint after the Q&A round when the authority’s answers are in.
Why document
A documented decision with a score and reasons does three things: it protects against courtesy bids, makes decisions comparable and lets you ask in hindsight whether your judgement was right. Anyone who sees after a year that bids with a weak reference position never won will decide differently.
Typical mistakes
Bidding because the tender “fits well” without checking the evidence of suitability. Bidding so as not to annoy the authority. Overestimating the win probability because you know the authority. A structured sequence with verifiable criteria is in our bid/no-bid checklist.